伦敦金和铜昨天有下跌一些，但是今天早盘又回到了3340左右和9650左右，于是早上开盘之前和o3谈论了一下，继续维持策略。但是紫矿开盘后就走高，一度高达19.70，心情崩坏，于是把18.90亏损操作抱怨到o3上，盘中还一度与o3沟通，它继续在它的逻辑内建议，还认为19.70的回落符合判断，不建议今天介入，我表达了我的FOMO情绪，给出一个介入19.35的价位，19.05则放弃什么的，认为这个价位突破并没有放量。我又被说服了，很容易陷入它的论证中。
不过话说回来，前几天那失败的操作，说明我自己真心拿不住。虽然说是设置失败，本来想着18.70卖的，变成了18.90，被提早出局。但是自己会有这个疑问以及设置的时候，也说明了自己的判断问题。回归自己的直观感觉，经过这周在19.00左右的徘徊，紫矿应该说有点站稳的意思，由于前期19.10的仓位失去了，这时候在今天略微放量上涨的时候再追入有点风险与收益不匹配，就这个走势来看，除非金铜价有大的突破，不然紫矿的价位很难突破前高，所以肯定会震荡；今天大概率突破不了19.70的压力位置，那么结合今晚对ZZJ的会议预判（大概率中性偏积极而不会是激进的），下周还是会有可能回踩一下支撑位。FOMO什么的，意识到并处理好就行，开始坚持交易纪律，不要冲动；虽然今天有设置19.35cash in的条件单，但回头还是撤销了，也就这样吧，今天是强力噪音，需要一个更好的介入价位。同时下周开盘前如果金铜没有大力的回撤，要继续坚定金铜价格的坚挺，对紫矿的介入价位可以上调，尾盘和周一开盘前继续尝试与o3对话，汲取意见，主要是自己确信，不能把责任推卸给工具。
——————————————盘后分割线————————————————
紫矿昨天收盘19.07，今天开盘19.19，收盘19.47，最高19.70，最低19.02，换手率1.08%，总量222.96万，振幅3.57%，A/H溢价正2.58%，盘后伦敦金价格大概在3344，伦敦铜大概在9707，碳酸锂期货（国内期货）69880。
——————————————随附o3建议————————————————
感谢你提供完整的市场数据！根据最新的交易情况，我们可以更新策略判断和调整你的操作计划。以下是今天（7月18日）的完整分析：
1 | Market Recap: 17 Jul 2025 (Complete)
| Metric | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Close | ¥19.47 | Strong close near the highs, breaking the 19.30 resistance. |
| Range | 19.70 (high) – 19.02 (low) | 3.57 % intraday amplitude, very active session. |
| Turnover | 1.08 % | 222.96 million shares; good liquidity, not overheated. |
| A/H premium | +2.58 % | A-share outperformance, relatively healthy in the near-term. |
| LME gold (post-close) | $3 344/oz | Bullish but still under $3 350 resistance. |
| LME copper (post-close) | $9 707/t | Solid support > $9 500. |
| Li₂CO₃ futures | ¥69,880 | Lithium price showing strong recovery (still in the uptrend). |
2 | Re-evaluating Strategy: Stick with existing plan or adjust?
Price Action Summary:
- Today’s high: ¥19.70 was a clear resistance line; it confirms a strong breakout compared to the previous range of 19.00-19.30.
- Closing at ¥19.47 shows momentum above the 10-day EMA (~19.30), with a good chance of further upside if metals continue to support.
- Strong turnover: The 1.08 % turnover indicates active trading but not speculative overbought behavior yet.
- A/H premium remains positive at +2.58 %, signaling that A-shares are still in favor, and H-shares are being priced relatively lower.
Metals impact:
- Gold price at $3,344/oz is holding steady, slightly below the key $3,350 level.
- Copper at $9,707/t stays above the critical $9,500 support level.
- Lithium futures at ¥69,880 continue to show strong demand, which can support Zijin’s lithium mining future despite its relatively small contribution to revenue currently.
3 | Adjustments to Entry & Exit Plan
Given the strong upward momentum today, we can slightly adjust the entry/exit strategy as follows:
| Action | Current Setup | Adjustment | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Buy | ¥18.70 ± 0.05 | Keep | Still valid, supports risk-entry for any short-term pullback. |
| Margin Buy | ¥18.50 ± 0.05 | Keep | Still well-supported by the 50-day SMA (~18.48), remains a reasonable deeper-entry level. |
| 1st Take-Profit | ¥19.50 – 19.55 | Keep | Now closer to being tested again due to today’s breakout. First exit remains valid. |
| 2nd Take-Profit | ¥19.75 – 19.85 | Keep | Gap-fill and 20-day SMA alignment still valid; waiting for price to close above 19.80 for next move. |
| Stops | Cash 18.35, Margin 18.15 | Keep | Adequately protects from any downside continuation or liquidity squeeze. |
4 | What We Should Do Now
- If price consolidates near ¥19.50-19.55 today, that could set up for a final push into the gap near ¥19.75-19.85.
- If price drops back to ¥19.20 or lower, consider a re-entry around the previous low.
- Adjusting upward on the margin leg: If the price breaks above ¥19.60 with solid volume and holds, consider increasing margin exposure only above ¥19.80.
- Watch metals: If gold breaks $3,350 or copper stays above $9,700, continue to hold. If gold retreats below $3,300 or copper slips under $9,500, re-evaluate.
5 | Conclusion
- Stay with your strategy but now tighten up your exits for this week.
- The current price of ¥19.47 supports maintaining your ¥19.50 take-profit (initial exit).
- The market is not overheated, and metals continue to show strength. There’s room for short-term upside, especially if there is a positive surprise on Friday from the Politburo.
You can keep the same buy positions, but be ready to scale in and adjust profit-taking points based on this price action. If anything unexpected happens, like a sharp pullback, then execute the stops accordingly.
更新：Yes, you’re absolutely right! Since Friday’s close is behind us and no new market data is available yet, the next opportunity to review and adjust your strategy will be on Monday morning, right before the market opens. Here’s how you can structure the plan and manage potential FOMO (Fear of Missing Out):
1 | Waiting for Monday’s Open (20-30 mins before market start)
- Review the latest news & global metals movements (e.g., LME gold/copper prices, any macro headlines over the weekend).
- Assess A/H premium: If A-shares are showing strength relative to H-shares, it suggests demand for Zijin and could indicate momentum in favor of A-share buying.
- Decide on the entry levels:
- Cash buy (¥18.70) if price pulls back to support.
- Margin buy (¥18.50) if metals remain strong and the price continues its upward trend.
2 | If Monday shows strong opening
- Look for price action at ¥19.30-19.40 to verify breakout; if it holds, this could be the first signal to enter near that level.
3 | If Monday sees a weak start or macro worries arise
- Wait for re-entry at lower levels (¥18.70 or ¥18.50).
- You can also watch for any geopolitical risk updates or economic data over the weekend that could impact metal prices.
4 | Manage FOMO:
- Don’t rush into chasing every uptick.
- Stick with the strategy of buying near strong support levels, and take profits as planned.
Bottom line for Monday:
Stay flexible and focused. You’re in the right position to react to the market’s behavior at the open on Monday. If you need, we can review it together before the market opens on Monday, and adjust based on new developments or price action.
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